To investigate the role of viral expression in individuals infected with human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1), a real-time quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of HTLV-1 tax messenger RNA (mRNA) using ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detection System was developed. Using this system, the HTLV-1 tax mRNA load was compared with HTLV-1 proviral DNA load, HTLV-1 Tax protein expression, HTLV-1 Tax-specific CD8(+) T-cell frequency, and disease severity of HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). This approach was a sensitive and specific technique for the precise quantification of HTLV-1 tax mRNA. The total amount of HTLV-1 tax mRNA and mRNA expression level in HTLV-1-infected cells (mRNA/DNA ratio) were higher in HAM/TSP patients than in asymptomatic HTLV-1 carriers. The HTLV-1 tax mRNA load correlated with the HTLV-1 proviral DNA load ex vivo, the Tax protein expression in vitro, and the Tax-specific CD8(+) T-cell frequency ex vivo. The HTLV-1 tax mRNA load also correlated with disease severity in HAM/TSP patients. These data suggest that increased HTLV-1 expression plays an important role in the pathogenesis of HAM/TSP, and the HTLV-1 tax mRNA level could be a useful predictor of disease progression in patients with HAM/TSP.